U.S. Shale-Oil Hubbert Production Peak: Civilization's Ultimate Energy Forecast

Abstract

This paper, in the form of a treatise, estimates a U.S. shale-oil production trend forecast and explores potential consequences of that trend on U.S. and World macroeconomic conditions and growth prospects. It explains the economics of the Hubbert curve including a literature review both pro and con. It explains the relationship of shale-oil and shale-gas. It falsifies various U.S. shale-oil trend hypotheses using logic and econometrics. It then presents oil price expectations based on an analyses of entropy-economic relationships, physical energy characteristics, new-institutional economic theories of OPEC, and OPEC+ game-theoretic plays. Covid-19, OPEC+ and macro-economic principles are analyzed for their potential market changing effects using Schwartzian futurology methodology. A comparison of the current global civilization to past civilizations is also carried out.

Keywords: U.S. Shale-Oil, Peak Oil, Hubbert Curve, OPEC, Substitutes in Production, Oil Crisis, COVID-19 Recession, Futurology, Energy Civilization

JEL Classification: Q410 Energy: Demand and Supply; D02 Institutions; Q47 Energy Forecasting; Q43 Energy and the Macro E