Double Catastrophe: Intermittent Stratospheric Geoengineering Induced By Societal Collapse

Environment, Systems and Decisions 33(1):168-180 (2020)

20 Pages Posted: 2 Jul 2020

See all articles by Seth Baum

Seth Baum

Global Catastrophic Risk Institute

Timothy M. Maher Jr.

Bard College - Center for Environmental Policy

Jacob Haqq-Misra

Global Catastrophic Risk Institute

Date Written: March 23, 2013

Abstract

Perceived failure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has prompted interest in avoiding the harms of climate change via geoengineering, that is, the intentional manipulation of Earth system processes. Perhaps the most promising geoengineering technique is stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), which reflects incoming solar radiation, thereby lowering surface temperatures. This paper analyzes a scenario in which SAI brings great harm on its own. The scenario is based on the issue of SAI intermittency, in which aerosol injection is halted, sending temperatures rapidly back toward where they would have been without SAI. The rapid temperature increase could be quite damaging, which in turn creates a strong incentive to avoid intermittency. In the scenario, a catastrophic societal collapse eliminates society’s ability to continue SAI, despite the incentive. The collapse could be caused by a pandemic, nuclear war, or other global catastrophe. The ensuing intermittency hits a population that is already vulnerable from the initial collapse, making for a double catastrophe. While the outcomes of the double catastrophe are difficult to predict, plausible worst-case scenarios include human extinction. The decision to implement SAI is found to depend on whether global catastrophe is more likely from double catastrophe or from climate change alone. The SAI double catastrophe scenario also strengthens arguments for greenhouse gas emissions reductions and against SAI, as well as for building communities that could be self-sufficient during global catastrophes. Finally, the paper demonstrates the value of integrative, systems-based global catastrophic risk analysis.

Keywords: geoengineering, societal collapse, global catastrophic risk, scenario analysis, climate change

Suggested Citation

Baum, Seth and Maher, Timothy and Haqq-Misra, Jacob, Double Catastrophe: Intermittent Stratospheric Geoengineering Induced By Societal Collapse (March 23, 2013). Environment, Systems and Decisions 33(1):168-180 (2020), Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3640777 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3640777

Seth Baum (Contact Author)

Global Catastrophic Risk Institute ( email )

Timothy Maher

Bard College - Center for Environmental Policy ( email )

NY 12504
United States

Jacob Haqq-Misra

Global Catastrophic Risk Institute ( email )

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