Uncertainty and Decision-Making During a Crisis: How to Make Policy Decisions in the COVID-19 Context?

32 Pages Posted: 10 Jul 2020

See all articles by Loic Berger

Loic Berger

CNRS; IÉSEG School of Management, Lille Campus; RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment

Nicolas Berger

London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

Valentina Bosetti

Bocconi University; CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change

Itzhak Gilboa

Tel Aviv University - Eitan Berglas School of Economics; HEC Paris - Economics & Decision Sciences

Lars Peter Hansen

University of Chicago - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Christopher Jarvis

London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine - Department of Infectious Disease and Epidemiology

Massimo Marinacci

Bocconi University - Department of Decision Sciences

Richard Smith

London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

Date Written: July 8, 2020

Abstract

Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and its global impacts are unprecedented, decisions need to be made in a highly uncertain, complex and rapidly changing environment. In such a context, in which human lives and the economy are at stake, we argue that using ideas and constructs from modern decision theory, even informally, will make policymaking more a responsible and transparent process.

Keywords: model uncertainty, ambiguity, robustness, decision rules

Suggested Citation

Berger, Loic and Berger, Nicolas and Bosetti, Valentina and Gilboa, Itzhak and Hansen, Lars Peter and Jarvis, Christopher and Marinacci, Massimo and Smith, Richard, Uncertainty and Decision-Making During a Crisis: How to Make Policy Decisions in the COVID-19 Context? (July 8, 2020). University of Chicago, Becker Friedman Institute for Economics Working Paper No. 2020-95, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3647188 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3647188

Loic Berger

CNRS ( email )

France

IÉSEG School of Management, Lille Campus ( email )

3 Rue de la Digue
Lille, 59000
France

RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment ( email )

Nicolas Berger

London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine ( email )

Keppel Street
London, WC1E 7HT
United Kingdom

Valentina Bosetti

Bocconi University

Via Gobbi 5
Milan, 20136
Italy

CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

Itzhak Gilboa

Tel Aviv University - Eitan Berglas School of Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 39040
Ramat Aviv, Tel Aviv, 69978
Israel
972-3-640-6423 (Phone)
972-3-640-9908 (Fax)

HEC Paris - Economics & Decision Sciences

Paris
France

Lars Peter Hansen (Contact Author)

University of Chicago - Department of Economics ( email )

1101 E 58th ST
Chicago, IL 60637
United States
773-702-8170 (Phone)
773-702-8490 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Christopher Jarvis

London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine - Department of Infectious Disease and Epidemiology

United Kingdom

Massimo Marinacci

Bocconi University - Department of Decision Sciences ( email )

Via Roentgen 1
Milan, 20136
Italy

Richard Smith

London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine ( email )

Keppel Street
London, WC1E 7HT
United Kingdom

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