The USMCA's Future in Context

Abstract

"This report--the eleventh and final in a series that began a year and half ago--briefly considers what in the author’s view are the most significant of the external factors that could have a significant impact on whether the USMCA, now that it has entered into force, will achieve the levels of success in stimulating North American investment, jobs and trade that the three Parties hope for. These important factors include the U.S. Section 232 ("national security") tariffs on steel and aluminum; the ongoing and expanding United States-China trade war; the emasculation by the United States of the World Trade Organization’s dispute settlement system; the somewhat unpredictable nature of the U.S. and Mexican presidents; and the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. All of these add to the challenges facing the three governments and private stakeholders."

Keywords: NAFTA, USMC, Trump, Lopez-Obrador/AMLO, World Trade Organization, Coronavirus/COVID-19, Section 232 tariffs, Steel/aluminum