On The Scientific Method
62 Pages Posted:
Date Written: July 15, 2020
"If you toss a coin seven times, and all tosses come up heads, what is the probability of the eighth toss also turning up head?" I show that the answer depends on how sure one is about the prior valuation of the probability that the coin is fair. I then extend the analysis to valuation of the probability of gender-neutrality of birth on the basis of the observed number of female and male births, using Bayesian updating. I finally show that faith consists of a degenerate prior and that the scientific method requires a non-degenerate prior.
Keywords: Uncertainty; Coin Tosses; Gender Proportions; Bayes Theorem; Scientific Method; Science; Faith.
JEL Classification: B4; C6; D8
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation