The Scientific Method Versus Faith

53 Pages Posted: 18 Aug 2020 Last revised: 13 Feb 2023

Date Written: February 11, 2023


"If you toss a coin seven times, and all tosses come up heads, what is the probability of the eighth toss also turning up head?" I show that the answer depends on the level of sureness about the prior probability that the coin is fair. I extend the analysis to the probability of gender-neutrality of birth on the basis of the observed number of female and male births. I prove that updating the probability on the basis of new information is scientific, and since the criterion of falsifiability is essential to a scientific theory, that faith consists of a zero-one prior whereas the scientific method requires a non-zero-one prior.

Keywords: Uncertainty; Coin Tosses; Gender Proportions; Bayes Theorem; Non-Zero-One Prior; Zero-One Prior; Falsifiability; Scientific Method; Faith.

JEL Classification: B4; C6; D8

Suggested Citation

Bhattacharya, Rajeev, The Scientific Method Versus Faith (February 11, 2023). Available at SSRN: or

Rajeev Bhattacharya (Contact Author)

Washington Finance and Economics ( email )

United States


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