The Scientific Method Versus Faith

62 Pages Posted: 18 Aug 2020 Last revised: 13 Sep 2021

Date Written: September 13, 2021

Abstract

"If you toss a coin seven times, and all tosses come up heads, what is the probability of the eighth toss also turning up head?" I show that the answer depends on the level of surety about the prior probability that the coin is fair. I extend the analysis to the probability of gender-neutrality of birth on the basis of the observed number of female and male births. I prove that updating the probability on the basis of new information is scientific, and since the criterion of falsifiability is essential to a scientific theory, that faith consists of a degenerate prior whereas the scientific method requires a non-degenerate prior.

Keywords: Uncertainty; Coin Tosses; Gender Proportions; Bayes Theorem; Non-Degenerate Prior; Degenerate Prior; Falsifiability; Scientific Method; Faith.

JEL Classification: B4; C6; D8

Suggested Citation

Bhattacharya, Rajeev, The Scientific Method Versus Faith (September 13, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3650610 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3650610

Rajeev Bhattacharya (Contact Author)

Washington Finance and Economics ( email )

United States

HOME PAGE: http://washington-finance.com

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