Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and the Dynamics of Retail Trade Industries on the U.S.-Canada Border

Abstract

Consumers living near the U.S.-Canada border can shift their expenditures between the two countries, so real exchange rate fluctuations can act as demand shocks to border areas' retailers. Using annual county-level data, we estimate the effects of real exchange rates on the number of establishments and their average employment in border counties for four retail industries. In three of the four industries we consider, the number of operating establishments responds either contemporaneously or with a lag of one year, so 'long-run' changes in net entry in fact occur quickly enough to matter for short-run fluctuations.

JEL Classification: F4, E3, L8