A Narrow Escape? Malthusian Pressures in the Late Imperial Moscow

Abstract

Did late Imperial Russia suffer from Malthusian pressures? In this paper, we use quarterly demographic and economic data from Moscow to answer this question using a VAR approach. In doing so, we provide the first application of this common methodology in economic history to pre-1913 Russia. We find signs that there was an escape from Malthusian pressures, but that this escape was a narrow one. Our findings are consistent with the existing literature depicting a low, but unsteadily increasing standard of living in Russia during the late imperial period.

Keywords: Russian Economic History, Late Imperial Russia, Malthusian Pressures, VAR, Rolling VAR, Positive Check, Preventive Check. 1

JEL Classification: J11, N33, N13