Work-Related and Personal Predictors of COVID-19 Transmission

23 Pages Posted: 29 Jul 2020

See all articles by Paul Anand

Paul Anand

The Open University - Department of Economics; London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Centre for Philosophy of Natural and Social Science (CPNSS); IZA; University of Oxford

Heidi Allen

Providence Health & Services - Center for Outcomes Research and Education

Robert Ferrer

University of Texas at Dallas

Natalie Gold

University of Oxford

Rolando Gonzales

University of Agder

Evan Kontopantelis

University of Manchester

Melanie Krause

University of Hamburg - Department of Economics

Francis Vergunst

University of Montreal

Abstract

The paper provides new evidence from a survey of 2000 individuals in the US and UK related to predictors of Covid-19 transmission. Specifically, it investigates work and personal predictors of transmission experience reported by respondents using regression models to better understand possible transmission pathways and mechanisms in the community. Three themes emerge from the analysis. Firstly, transport roles and travelling practices are significant predictors of infection. Secondly, evidence from the US especially shows union membership, consultation over safety measures and the need to use public transport to get to work are also significant predictors. This is interpreted as evidence of the role of deprivation and of reactive workplace consultations. Thirdly and finally, there is some, often weaker, evidence that income, car-owership, use of a shared kitchen, university degree type, riskaversion, extraversion and height are predictors of transmission. The comparative nature of the evidence indicates that the less uniformly stringent nature of the US lockdown provides more information about both structural and individual factors that predict transmission. The evidence about height is discussed in the context of the aerosol transmission debate. The paper concludes that both structural and individual factors must be taken into account when predicting transmission or designing effective public health measures and messages to prevent or contain transmission.

JEL Classification: I1, I12, I14, I18

Suggested Citation

Anand, Paul and Allen, Heidi and Ferrer, Robert and Gold, Natalie and Gonzales, Rolando and Kontopantelis, Evan and Krause, Melanie and Vergunst, Francis, Work-Related and Personal Predictors of COVID-19 Transmission. IZA Discussion Paper No. 13493, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3654930

Paul Anand (Contact Author)

The Open University - Department of Economics ( email )

Walton Hall
Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA
United Kingdom

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Centre for Philosophy of Natural and Social Science (CPNSS) ( email )

United Kingdom

IZA ( email )

University of Oxford ( email )

Mansfield Road
Oxford, Oxfordshire OX1 4AU
United Kingdom

Heidi Allen

Providence Health & Services - Center for Outcomes Research and Education ( email )

United States

Robert Ferrer

University of Texas at Dallas

Natalie Gold

University of Oxford

Rolando Gonzales

University of Agder ( email )

Serviceboks 422
N-4604 Kristiansand, VEST AGDER 4604
Norway

Evan Kontopantelis

University of Manchester

Melanie Krause

University of Hamburg - Department of Economics ( email )

Von-Melle-Park 5
room 2128 C rise
Hamburg, 20146
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.melanie-krause.de

Francis Vergunst

University of Montreal

C.P. 6128 succursale Centre-ville
Montreal, Quebec H3C 3J7
Canada

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