Outbreak Prediction of COVID-19 Patients for Dense and Populated Countries Using Machine Learning

14 Pages Posted: 30 Jul 2020

See all articles by Aman Khakharia

Aman Khakharia

K. J. Somaiya college of engineering

Vruddhi Shah

University of Mumbai - K. J. Somaiya College of Engineering (K.J.S.C.E.)

Sankalp Jain

K. J. Somaiya College of Engineering

Jash Shah

K. J. Somaiya College of Engineering

Amanshu Tiwari

K. J. Somaiya College of Engineering

Prathamesh Daphal

K. J. Somaiya College of Engineering

Mahesh Warang

K. J. Somaiya College of Engineering

Ninad Mehendale

Ninad's research Lab; K. J. Somaiya college of Engineering

Date Written: July 19, 2020

Abstract

The Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to have a devastating effect on the health and well-being of the global population. An increase in the number of patients testing positive for COVID-19 has created a lot of stress on governing bodies across the globe and they are finding it difficult to tackle the situation. We have developed an outbreak prediction system for COVID-19 for the top 10 highly and densely populated countries worldwide. Our prediction model forecasts the count of the new cases likely to arise for the next 5 days using 9 different machine learning algorithms. A suitable model for predicting the rise in the new cases has been highlighted for most of the countries having an average accuracy of more than 90 \%. The highest accuracy that we achieved was 99.93%. Our prediction model can help the stakeholders to be prepared in advance for such an outbreak to ensure the proper management of the available resources.

Note: Funding: No funding was involved in the present work.

Conflict of Interest: Authors A. Khakharia, A. Tiwari, J. Shah, P. Daphal, S. Jain, V. Shah, M.Warang and N. Mehendale, declare that he has no conflict of interest.

Ethical Approval: This article does not contain any studies with animals or Humans performed by any of the authors. All the necessary permissions were obtained from the Institute Ethical Committee and concerned authorities.

Keywords: COVID-19 outbreak prediction, COVID-19, Machine learning

JEL Classification: I

Suggested Citation

Khakharia, Aman and Shah, Vruddhi and Jain, Sankalp and Shah, Jash and Tiwari, Amanshu and Daphal, Prathamesh and Warang, Mahesh and Mehendale, Ninad, Outbreak Prediction of COVID-19 Patients for Dense and Populated Countries Using Machine Learning (July 19, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3655759 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3655759

Aman Khakharia

K. J. Somaiya college of engineering ( email )

India

Vruddhi Shah

University of Mumbai - K. J. Somaiya College of Engineering (K.J.S.C.E.) ( email )

Mumbai, MA Maharashtra 400007
India

Sankalp Jain

K. J. Somaiya College of Engineering ( email )

Mumbai, MA Maharashtra 4000007
India

Jash Shah

K. J. Somaiya College of Engineering ( email )

India

Amanshu Tiwari

K. J. Somaiya College of Engineering ( email )

India

Prathamesh Daphal

K. J. Somaiya College of Engineering ( email )

India

Mahesh Warang

K. J. Somaiya College of Engineering ( email )

India

Ninad Mehendale (Contact Author)

Ninad's research Lab ( email )

M.G. Road, Naupada Thane
Thane, 400602
India

K. J. Somaiya college of Engineering ( email )

Mumbai, MA Maharashtra 400007
India

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