The COVID-19 Pandemic: Conceptual Model for the Global Economic Impacts and Recovery

21 Pages Posted: 4 Aug 2020

See all articles by Md. Jafor Ali

Md. Jafor Ali

Islamic University, Kushtia

Dr. Abul Bashar Bhuiyan

Universiti Selangor

Norhayah Zulkifli

Universiti Selangor

M. Kabir Hassan

University of New Orleans - College of Business Administration - Department of Economics and Finance

Date Written: July 20, 2020

Abstract

Since the outbreak at Wuhan in China, the contagious disease COVID-19 (SARS-Cov-2) pandemic is taking an unprecedented toll on global public health, economy, and livelihood issues. As the public health crisis is highly associated with economic affairs, it has grappled the global economy exponentially towards the dramatic downturn that pushed it into the worst recession after the great depression of the 1930s. The present review study aims to be summarized of the existing literature on the magnitude causes and effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the people and business corporations and developed a conceptual model for the recovery of the world economy. The study revealed that people and business are suffering by vulnerable scenarios which have causes of effect on the existing economic indicators especially for microeconomic indicators such as jobless soaring, lowering income, higher health expenses, higher household expenses, low productivity, mental stress, lower consumption, social imbalance, the collapse of commodity prices, capital flow reversal, unemployment, fixed recurring expenses, the factory closed and heavy financial loses. However, for macro-economic indicators affected in the categories of the global financial crisis, global demand and supply shocks, volatile capital market, disruption in fiscal policy, disruption in monetary policy, severe unemployment problem, disruption in the aviation industry, disruption in international tourism and hospitality industry, disruption in global trade and commerce, disruption in the global supply chain, global public health emergency and global economic downturn. The present study concluded that the institutions have to play a major and mature role especially all government agencies as well as the non-government agencies by developing of right policies and laws and ensure of practices and coordination as well as increase awareness among the public and business accordingly. The study summarized strategic and policy guideline for the recovery of the global economy by strengthening the health care system, commodity market volatility fix-up, financial market restructuring, resumption of manufacturing and economic activity, special care for micro, small and medium scale enterprises, mitigate the unemployment problem, recovery package for tourism, hospitality and aviation sector, strengthening the global supply chain network, impacts on global immigration and remittance issues and develop sustainable development framework accordingly for recovery of the world economy.

Keywords: COVID-2019 Pandemic, Vulnerable Scenarios, Micro-Economic Effects, Macro Economic Effects, Global Economic Crisis and Conceptual Economic Recovery Model

JEL Classification: F15, F43, F60, F61, F62, F63, F64, F65, F66, F68

Suggested Citation

Ali, Md. Jafor and Bhuiyan, Dr. Abul Bashar and Zulkifli, Norhayah and Hassan, M. Kabir, The COVID-19 Pandemic: Conceptual Model for the Global Economic Impacts and Recovery (July 20, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3656243 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3656243

Md. Jafor Ali

Islamic University, Kushtia ( email )

Kushtia
Bangladesh

Dr. Abul Bashar Bhuiyan (Contact Author)

Universiti Selangor ( email )

Jalan Timur Tambahan,
Bestari Jaya, Selangor Darul Ehsan 45600
Malaysia

Norhayah Zulkifli

Universiti Selangor ( email )

Jalan Timur Tambahan,
Bestari Jaya, Selangor Darul Ehsan 45600
Malaysia

M. Kabir Hassan

University of New Orleans - College of Business Administration - Department of Economics and Finance ( email )

2000 Lakeshore Drive
New Orleans, LA 70148
United States

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