Staggered Adoption of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions to Contain COVID-19 Across U.S. Counties: Direct and Spillover Effects
14 Pages Posted: 30 Jul 2020
Date Written: June 29, 2020
We estimate direct and spillover effects of social distancing measures intended to slow the spread of COVID-19 at the U.S. county level using mobility indicators based on cellphone data. We find that spillover effects range between a third and a half of the direct effect depending on the particular outcome or policy considered. Our results suggest that decentralized NPI decisions, which does not internalize externalities generated on surrounding locations, could result in lower NPI implementation and weaker reduction in mobility, and hence more personal contacts and interactions in leisure and work activities, which are the main driver of the COVID-19 transmission.
Note: Funding: Hopkins Business of Health Initiative.
Declaration of Interest: None to declare
Keywords: mobility, spillovers, Non pharmaceutical Interventions, COVID-19, regional policies, place-based policies
JEL Classification: H73, I18, R12
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation