Staggered Adoption of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions to Contain COVID-19 Across U.S. Counties: Direct and Spillover Effects

14 Pages Posted: 30 Jul 2020

See all articles by Vadim Elenev

Vadim Elenev

Johns Hopkins Carey Business School

Luis Quintero

Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School

Alessandro Rebucci

Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Emilia Simeonova

Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School

Date Written: June 29, 2020

Abstract

We estimate direct and spillover effects of social distancing measures intended to slow the spread of COVID-19 at the U.S. county level using mobility indicators based on cellphone data. We find that spillover effects range between a third and a half of the direct effect depending on the particular outcome or policy considered. Our results suggest that decentralized NPI decisions, which does not internalize externalities generated on surrounding locations, could result in lower NPI implementation and weaker reduction in mobility, and hence more personal contacts and interactions in leisure and work activities, which are the main driver of the COVID-19 transmission.

Note: Funding: Hopkins Business of Health Initiative.

Declaration of Interest: None to declare

Keywords: mobility, spillovers, Non pharmaceutical Interventions, COVID-19, regional policies, place-based policies

JEL Classification: H73, I18, R12

Suggested Citation

Elenev, Vadim and Quintero, Luis and Rebucci, Alessandro and Simeonova, Emilia, Staggered Adoption of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions to Contain COVID-19 Across U.S. Counties: Direct and Spillover Effects (June 29, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3657594 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3657594

Vadim Elenev

Johns Hopkins Carey Business School ( email )

100 International Drive
Baltimore, MD 20036-1984
United States

Luis Quintero (Contact Author)

Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School ( email )

100 International Drive
Baltimore, MD 21202
United States

Alessandro Rebucci

Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School ( email )

100 International Drive
Baltimore, MD 21202
United States

HOME PAGE: http://carey.jhu.edu/faculty-research/faculty-directory/alessandro-rebucci-phd

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Emilia Simeonova

Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School ( email )

100 International Drive
Baltimore, MD 21202
United States

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