The Short- and Long-Term Costs to the United States of the Trump Administration's Attempt to Deport Foreign Students

9 Pages Posted: 6 Aug 2020

See all articles by Sherman Robinson

Sherman Robinson

World Bank

Marcus Noland

Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics; East-West Center

Egor Gornostay

Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics

Soyoung Han

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: July 23, 2020

Abstract

On July 6, 2020, US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) announced modifications to the Student and Exchange Visitor Program eliminating temporary exemptions for non-immigrant students taking all classes online due to the COVID-19 pandemic, beginning in the fall 2020 semester. Foreign students violating the rule would be subject to deportation. Under public pressure, the Trump administration rescinded the order on July 14. Had the policy been implemented, more than 1 million foreign students studying in the United States could have been deported. The authors use an economy-wide simulation model to estimate the economic impact on the United States if the policy had been implemented. They find that the policy would have cost the US economy up to 752,000 jobs and $68 billion in lost GDP in the short run. Their estimates are larger than those reported in other studies because they consider both direct and indirect effects of the policy. In the long run, the move would have reduced the research productivity of American universities and adversely affected research, innovation, and entrepreneurship across the economy, in both the private and public sectors.

Keywords: immigration, foreign students, research, innovation, entrepreneurship, economic nationalism, multiplier model

JEL Classification: F22, F52, I2, I21, I23, I28, J61, O31

Suggested Citation

Robinson, Sherman and Noland, Marcus and Gornostay, Egor and Han, Soyoung, The Short- and Long-Term Costs to the United States of the Trump Administration's Attempt to Deport Foreign Students (July 23, 2020). Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper No. 20-11, 2020, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3659331 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3659331

Sherman Robinson

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Marcus Noland (Contact Author)

Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics ( email )

1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
United States

East-West Center ( email )

1601 East-West Road
Honolulu, HI 96848-1601
United States

Egor Gornostay

Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics ( email )

1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
United States

Soyoung Han

affiliation not provided to SSRN

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