Modelling the Impact of Climate Change Risk on Bio-Ethanol Supply Chains

Ghadge, A., van der Werf, S., Er-Kara, M., Goswami, M., Kumar, P. and Bourlakis, M. (2020), “Modelling the impact of climate change risk on bioethanol supply chains,” Technology Forecasting and Social Change, Accepted.

27 Pages Posted: 3 Sep 2020

See all articles by Abhijeet Ghadge

Abhijeet Ghadge

Cranfield University - School of Management

Sjoerd van der Werf

Heriot Watt University

Merve Er-Kara

Marmara University - Faculty of Business Administration

Mohit Goswami

Indian Institute of Management (IIM), Raipur

Pankaj Kumar

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Michael Bourlakis

Brunel University London - Brunel Business School

Date Written: July 24, 2020

Abstract

The availability of bio-ethanol, a promising renewable alternative to fossil fuels depends on the supply of biomass produced from agricultural resources. The study attempts a system dynamics modelling approach to explore the implications of greenhouse gas concentration trajectories associated with climate change on bio-ethanol supply chains. Eight different climate change scenarios are simulated spanning over a 40-year horizon to predict biomass yield and bio-ethanol availability, by considering first generation (corn) and second generation (switch-grass) ethanol feed-stocks. The developed model is used to assess the extent of potential disruptions resulting from global warming. Cascading effect of climate change risk is evident through decreased yield and production, and increased shortages at end customer in the bio-ethanol supply network. The results indicate that, if climate change risk is not adequately mitigated and current used source of ethanol (corn) continues to be leveraged, the bio-ethanol availability may decrease by one-fourth by the year 2060. The comparative study encourages exploring the increased use of switch-grass as a sustainable feed-stock for renewable energy. Developed insights support identifying effective climate change mitigation policies and sustainable investment decisions for the reduction in carbon emissions.

Keywords: Bio-ethanol; Climate Change; Renewable Energy; Supply Chain Risk; System Dynamics

Suggested Citation

Ghadge, Abhijeet and van der Werf, Sjoerd and Er-Kara, Merve and Goswami, Mohit and Kumar, Pankaj and Bourlakis, Michael, Modelling the Impact of Climate Change Risk on Bio-Ethanol Supply Chains (July 24, 2020). Ghadge, A., van der Werf, S., Er-Kara, M., Goswami, M., Kumar, P. and Bourlakis, M. (2020), “Modelling the impact of climate change risk on bioethanol supply chains,” Technology Forecasting and Social Change, Accepted., Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3660226 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3660226

Abhijeet Ghadge (Contact Author)

Cranfield University - School of Management ( email )

Bedfordshire, MK43 0AL
United Kingdom

Sjoerd Van der Werf

Heriot Watt University ( email )

Institute of Petroleum Engineering
Edinburgh, EH144AS
United Kingdom

Merve Er-Kara

Marmara University - Faculty of Business Administration ( email )

Bahcelievler Campus, Ressam Namık İsmail Sokak
No: 1, Bahçelievler
Istanbul, 34840
Turkey

Mohit Goswami

Indian Institute of Management (IIM), Raipur ( email )

GEC Campus, Old Dhamtari Road, Sejbhar
Raipur, 492015
India

Pankaj Kumar

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Michael Bourlakis

Brunel University London - Brunel Business School ( email )

Kingston Lane
Eastern Gateway Building
Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH
United Kingdom

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