Optimal Pandemic Control: Human Mobility and Travel Restriction

Abstract

This paper presents a model for finding optimal pandemic control policy with consideration of limited resource and cross-region human mobility. We extend the baseline Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) epidemiology model, by including the net human mobility from severely-impacted region to mildly-affected region. The optimal mitigation policy combining testing and lockdown approaches in each region is then obtained under the objective of minimizing economic cost and the constraint of limited resource. We parametrize the model using data on the COVID-19 pandemic and show that the optimal response strategy and mitigation outcome greatly rely on the mitigation duration, available resource and cross-region human mobility. Furthermore, we discuss on the economic impact of travel restriction policy with quantitative analysis.

Note: Funding: The research is supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, and the Research Funds of Renmin University of China (20XNF001).

Declaration of Interest: This work is also supported by Public Computing Cloud Platform, Renmin University of China

Keywords: Pandemic mitigation; human mobility; SIR model; COVID-19