Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A Scenario Analysis to 2030

Africa Report, Institute for Security Studies, Pretoria, 2020

40 Pages Posted: 4 Aug 2020

See all articles by Jakkie Cilliers

Jakkie Cilliers

Institute for Security Studies

Stellah Kwasi

Institute for Security Studies (ISS)

Kouassi yeboua

Institute for Security Studies (ISS) - African Futures and Innovation Programme

Marius Oosthuizen

University of Pretoria - Gordon Institute of Business Science

Kelly Alexander

Tilburg University - Department of Organization Studies

TK Pooe

North West University

Jonathan Moyer

University of Denver - Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures

Date Written: July 23, 2020

Abstract

This report presents three scenarios on the impact of COVID-19 in Africa using economic growth forecasts, mortality and efforts to ameliorate impact through social grants. Likely effects are examined on per capita income, poverty and the attainment of selected Sustainable Development Goals targets. Africa’s development trajectory has suffered a severe setback, with extreme poverty rising in all the scenarios. The pandemic threatens Africa in several ways, and the report provides policy recommendations to reduce vulnerability and strengthen resilience.

Keywords: Africa, COVID-19, forecast, scenario, poverty, income, impact

Suggested Citation

Cilliers, Jacobus (Jakkie) and Kwasi, Stellah and yeboua, Kouassi and Oosthuizen, Marius and Alexander, Kelly and Pooe, TK and Moyer, Jonathan, Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A Scenario Analysis to 2030 (July 23, 2020). Africa Report, Institute for Security Studies, Pretoria, 2020, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3660866 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3660866

Jacobus (Jakkie) Cilliers (Contact Author)

Institute for Security Studies ( email )

PO Box 95507, Waterkloof
Pretoria, Gauteng 0145
South Africa
+27-12-3469500 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.issafrica.org

Stellah Kwasi

Institute for Security Studies (ISS) ( email )

Ki-Ab Building 1st Floor
Addis Ababa, Addis Ababa
Ethiopia

Kouassi Yeboua

Institute for Security Studies (ISS) - African Futures and Innovation Programme ( email )

South Africa

Marius Oosthuizen

University of Pretoria - Gordon Institute of Business Science ( email )

Lynnwood Road
Pretoria 5100
South Africa

Kelly Alexander

Tilburg University - Department of Organization Studies ( email )

Warandelaan 2
Tilburg, 5038 AB
Netherlands

TK Pooe

North West University ( email )

Hoffman Street
Potchefstroom, 2520
South Africa

Jonathan Moyer

University of Denver - Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures ( email )

2201 S Gaylord St.
Denver, CO 80210
United States

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