Learning Epidemiology by Doing: The Empirical Implications of a Spatial-Sir Model with Behavioral Responses

34 Pages Posted: 28 Jul 2020 Last revised: 22 May 2022

See all articles by Alberto Bisin

Alberto Bisin

New York University (NYU) - Department of Economics; New York University (NYU) - Center for Experimental Social Science (CESS); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Andrea Moro

Vanderbilt University - College of Arts and Science - Department of Economics

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: July 2020

Abstract

We simulate a spatial behavioral model of the diffusion of an infection to understand the role of geographic characteristics: the number and distribution of outbreaks, population size, density, and agents’ movements. We show that several invariance properties of the SIR model concerning these variables do not hold when agents interact with neighbors in a (two dimensional) geographical space. Indeed, the spatial model’s local interactions generate matching frictions and local herd immunity effects, which play a fundamental role in the infection dynamics. We also show that geographical factors affect how behavioral responses affect the epidemics. We derive relevant implications for estimating the effects of the epidemics and policy interventions that use panel data from several geographical units.

Suggested Citation

Bisin, Alberto and Moro, Andrea, Learning Epidemiology by Doing: The Empirical Implications of a Spatial-Sir Model with Behavioral Responses (July 2020). NBER Working Paper No. w27590, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3661082

Alberto Bisin (Contact Author)

New York University (NYU) - Department of Economics

14 West 4th Street
New York, NY 10012
United States

New York University (NYU) - Center for Experimental Social Science (CESS) ( email )

One Washington Place
New York, NY 10003
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Andrea Moro

Vanderbilt University - College of Arts and Science - Department of Economics ( email )

Box 1819 Station B
Nashville, TN 37235
United States

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
24
Abstract Views
183
PlumX Metrics