The Effect of Containment Measures on the Covid-19 Pandemic

43 Pages Posted: 28 Jul 2020 Last revised: 16 Aug 2020

See all articles by Pragyan Deb

Pragyan Deb

International Monetary Fund (IMF); London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Financial Markets Group

Davide Furceri

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Jonathan D. Ostry

Georgetown University; International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Nour Tawk

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Date Written: July 2020

Abstract

Countries have implemented several containment measures to halt the spread of the 2019 coronavirus disease, but it remains unclear the extent to which these unprecedented measures have been successful. We examine this question using daily data on the number of coronavirus disease cases as well as on real-time containment measures implemented by countries. Results suggest that these measures have been very effective in flattening the "pandemic curve", but there is significant heterogeneity across countries. Effectiveness is enhanced when measures are implemented quickly, where de facto mobility is curtailed, in countries with lower temperatures and population density, as well as in countries with a larger share of the elderly in total population and stronger health systems. We also find that easing of containment measures has resulted in an increase in the number of cases, but the effect has been lower (in absolute value) than that from a tightening of measures.

Keywords: containment measures, COVID-19, Pandemics

JEL Classification: D43, E52, E58, L11

Suggested Citation

Deb, Pragyan and Furceri, Davide and Ostry, Jonathan D. and Tawk, Nour, The Effect of Containment Measures on the Covid-19 Pandemic (July 2020). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP15086, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3661430

Pragyan Deb (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Financial Markets Group ( email )

Houghton Street
London WC2A 2AE
United Kingdom

Davide Furceri

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Jonathan D. Ostry

Georgetown University ( email )

Washington, DC 20057
United States

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Nour Tawk

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
0
Abstract Views
1,772
PlumX Metrics