A Multilevel Analysis of Drought Risk in Indian Agriculture: Implications for Managing Risk at Different Geographical Levels

Birthal, P.S., Hazrana, J. & Negi, D.S. A multilevel analysis of drought risk in Indian agriculture: implications for managing risk at different geographical levels. Climatic Change 157, 499–513 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02573-9

11 Pages Posted: 9 Sep 2020

See all articles by Pratap S. Birthal

Pratap S. Birthal

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Digvijay Negi

Ashoka University - Department of Economics

Date Written: November 2019

Abstract

Drought is an important downside risk in Indian agriculture; and the spatial differences in its intensity and probability of occurrence are considerable. To develop strategies to manage the risk of drought, and to coordinate and implement these strategies, it is essential to understand the variation in drought risk across geographical or administrative levels. This paper, using a multilevel modelling approach, decomposes the variation in drought risk across states, regions, districts, villages and households and finds it disproportionately distributed. About half the variation is attributed to between-individual (i.e. household) differences and the rest to between-population differences, mainly to states and villages. These findings suggest the potential for a critical role of states (policies) and local institutions (communities) in enhancing resilience of agriculture to droughts through the correct targeting of policies and support for the most appropriate geographic level.

Keywords: Drought risk, multiple geographical levels, agriculture, adaptations, India

JEL Classification: Q18, Q50, Q54

Suggested Citation

Birthal, Pratap S. and Negi, Digvijay, A Multilevel Analysis of Drought Risk in Indian Agriculture: Implications for Managing Risk at Different Geographical Levels (November 2019). Birthal, P.S., Hazrana, J. & Negi, D.S. A multilevel analysis of drought risk in Indian agriculture: implications for managing risk at different geographical levels. Climatic Change 157, 499–513 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02573-9, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3663021

Pratap S. Birthal

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Digvijay Negi (Contact Author)

Ashoka University - Department of Economics ( email )

Plot #2,
Rajiv Gandhi Education City
Kundli, 131028
India

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