An Agent-Based Model of Infectious Diseases Taking into Account the Role of Immune Cells and Antibodies.

Abstract

An agent-based infection model that takes into account the role of immune cells and antibodies has been constructed, and the effect of various factors on the spread and convergence of infection are analyzed. As a result, it was found that the calculated behavior of the numbers of newly infected, newly recovered, and the infected was qualitatively consistent with the actual phenomenon. It was found that an essential factor for the spread of infection is the number of infected persons with whom a healthy person encounters, while the existence of antibodies is not essential for the fundamental behavior of the spread and converge of infection. Based on these results, the fundamental mechanism for the spread of infection is that the probability of a healthy person encountering an infected person increases progressively, and the primary mechanism for convergence of the infection spread is that the above probability decreases progressively as the number of recovered people increases. It is considered that in order to control the spread of infection while minimizing economic deterioration, it is essential to identify infected persons, regulate their behavior, and minimize the probability for healthy persons encounter infected persons.

Note: Funding: No funding support for this research.

Conflict of Interest: None.

Keywords: agent-based model, infectious disease, coronavirus, immune cells, antibodies, pandemic, infection, recovery

JEL Classification: C6, Z0