Merger Rhetoric and the Credibility of Managerial Synergy Forecasts

Abstract

Managers frequently project high synergistic gains when announcing M&As. This paper analyzes when promised synergies are value-relevant. Using text analytical methods, we only find a positive relationship between synergy projections and announcement returns when promised numerical projections are credible, e.g., when accompanied by thorough verbal explanations and low impression management. Further, credibility increases when concrete instead of embellishing language is used. Hence, the more precise the information that firms disclose, the more it fosters trust in the underlying logic of the deal. Generally, investors seem to see through vacuous statements and value substance over form and verboseness of M&A announcements.

Keywords: mergers and acquisitions, synergies, management forecasts, textual analysis

JEL Classification: G14, G17, G34