Winners, Losers, and Near-Rationality: Heterogeneity in the MPC out of a Large Stimulus Tax Rebate

Abstract

We document heterogeneous spending out of a large stimulus tax rebate by household exposure to the 1980s Japanese housing market turbulence. We find recipients in areas with mild housing booms during the 1980s spent 47% of the 1994 tax rebate within a quarter, compared to 24% in areas with the largest booms. MPCs are highest for young renters without debt. Our findings are consistent with near-rationality rather than a liquidity constraint story. Winners who are less exposed to housing risk respond more to payments, implying policies which target losers from housing market downturns may be less effective at stimulating consumption.

Keywords: fiscal stimulus, tax rebate, marginal propensity to consume, near-rationality, housing price cycles, liquidity constraints

JEL Classification: D14, E21, E62, H31, R31