Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccines Under Limited Supply

37 Pages Posted: 31 Aug 2020 Last revised: 28 Sep 2020

See all articles by Xin Chen

Xin Chen

Georgia Institute of Technology - H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering

Menglong Li

City University of Hong Kong (CityU) - Department of Management Sciences

David Simchi-Levi

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - School of Engineering

Tiancheng Zhao

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Date Written: August 22, 2020

Abstract

Problem definition: This paper considers how to allocate COVID-19 vaccines to different age groups when limited vaccines are available over time. Academic/practical relevance: Vaccine is one of the most effective interventions to contain the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. However, the initial supply of the COVID-19 vaccine will be limited. An urgent problem for the government is to determine who to get the first dose of the future COVID-19 vaccine. Methodology: We use epidemic data from New York City to calibrate an age-structured SAPHIRE model that captures the disease dynamics within and across various age groups. The model and data allow us to derive effective static and dynamic vaccine allocation policies minimizing the number of confirmed cases or the numbers of deaths. Results: The optimal static policies achieve a much smaller number of confirmed cases and deaths compared to other static benchmark policies including the pro rata policy. Dynamic allocation policies, including various versions of the myopic policy, significantly improve on static policies. Managerial implications: For static policies, our numerical study shows that prioritizing the older groups is beneficial to reduce deaths while prioritizing younger groups is beneficial to avert infections. For dynamic policies, the older groups should be vaccinated at early days and then switch to younger groups. Our analysis provides insights on how to allocate vaccines to the various age groups, which is tightly connected to the decision-maker’s objective.

Note: Funding: None to declare

Declaration of Interest: None to declare

Keywords: COVID-19, vaccine allocation, limited supply, static policy, dynamic policy

Suggested Citation

Chen, Xin and Li, Menglong and Simchi-Levi, David and Zhao, Tiancheng, Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccines Under Limited Supply (August 22, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3678986 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3678986

Xin Chen

Georgia Institute of Technology - H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering ( email )

Menglong Li (Contact Author)

City University of Hong Kong (CityU) - Department of Management Sciences ( email )

Tat Chee Avenue
Kowloon Tong
Kowloon
Hong Kong
+852 34428578 (Phone)
+852 34420189 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://menglongli.com

David Simchi-Levi

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - School of Engineering ( email )

MA
United States

Tiancheng Zhao

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign ( email )

601 E John St
Champaign, IL Champaign 61820
United States

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
582
Abstract Views
2,886
Rank
89,824
PlumX Metrics