The Global Role of the United States and China

Abstract

Economic developments in the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies, can have effects far beyond their shores. A slowdown in these economies would result in considerably lower global growth transmitted through trade, financial, and commodity market channels. Changing U.S. financial conditions could reverberate across global financial markets, with pronounced effects on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) that rely heavily on external financing. China’s continued deceleration and re-balancing toward domestic consumption and services will likely put downward pressure on commodity prices worldwide and is expected to adversely affect commodity exporters.

Keywords: United States, China, Spillovers, Uncertainty, Trade, Business Cycles, Global Economy

JEL Classification: C15, E32, E52, F13, H30, O51