Pandemic Control in ECON-EPI Networks

48 Pages Posted: 12 Sep 2020

See all articles by Marina Azzimonti

Marina Azzimonti

SUNY Stony Brook - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Alessandra Fogli

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Fabrizio Perri

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Mark Ponder

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: August 1, 2020

Abstract

We develop an ECON-EPI network model to evaluate policies designed to improve health and economic outcomes during a pandemic. Relative to the standard epidemiological SIR set-up, we explicitly model social contacts among individuals and allow for heterogeneity in their number and stability. In addition, we embed the network in a structural economic model describing how contacts generate economic activity. We calibrate it to the New York metro area during the 2020 COVID-19 crisis and show three main results. First, the ECON-EPI network implies patterns of infections that better match the data compared to the standard SIR. The switching during the early phase of the pandemic from unstable to stable contacts is crucial for this result. Second, the model suggests the design of smart policies that reduce infections and at the same time boost economic activity. Third, the model shows that re-opening sectors characterized by numerous and unstable contacts (such as large events or schools) too early leads to fast growth of infections.

Keywords: Complex Networks, COVID-19, epidemiology, SIR, social distance

JEL Classification: D85, E23, E65, I18

Suggested Citation

Azzimonti, Marina and Fogli, Alessandra and Perri, Fabrizio and Ponder, Mark, Pandemic Control in ECON-EPI Networks (August 1, 2020). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP15229, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3688183

Marina Azzimonti (Contact Author)

SUNY Stony Brook - Department of Economics ( email )

NY 11733-4384
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Alessandra Fogli

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis ( email )

90 Hennepin Avenue
Minneapolis, MN 55480
United States

Fabrizio Perri

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis ( email )

90 Hennepin Avenue
Minneapolis, MN 55480
United States

Mark Ponder

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
0
Abstract Views
82
PlumX Metrics