Capacitated SIR Model with an Application to COVID-19

27 Pages Posted: 22 Sep 2020

See all articles by Ningyuan Chen

Ningyuan Chen

University of Toronto at Mississauga - Department of Management; University of Toronto - Rotman School of Management

Ming Hu

University of Toronto - Rotman School of Management

Chaoyu Zhang

University of Toronto - Rotman School of Management

Date Written: September 14, 2020

Abstract

The classical SIR model and its variants have seen great success in understanding and predicting epidemics' spread. We extend the SIR model to incorporate the limited testing capacity, which is by far one of the most notable challenges in the current COVID-19 outbreak. Specifically, on the SIR model, we impose a testing capacity that is shared among the infected and uninfected people. In this capacitated SIR model, we show first- and second-order structural properties of the total infection/confirmed cases with respect to the testing capacity, degree of testing the uninfected (or level of hospital panic run), incubation/testing turnaround time, and infection rate. In particular, we show the total number of infection cases is concavely decreasing in the testing capacity. We use COVID-19 data to calibrate our model and point out its public policy implications.

Note: Ethical approval statement: Our research only involves information freely available in the public domain without contact with any individuals.

Funding: None to declare

Declaration of Interest: None to declare

Keywords: COVID-19, testing capacity, compartmental model, SIR, structural result

JEL Classification: I18

Suggested Citation

Chen, Ningyuan and Hu, Ming and Zhang, Chaoyu, Capacitated SIR Model with an Application to COVID-19 (September 14, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3692751 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3692751

Ningyuan Chen (Contact Author)

University of Toronto at Mississauga - Department of Management ( email )


Canada

University of Toronto - Rotman School of Management ( email )

105 St. George st
Toronto, ON M5S 3E6
Canada

Ming Hu

University of Toronto - Rotman School of Management ( email )

105 St. George st
Toronto, ON M5S 3E6
Canada
416-946-5207 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://ming.hu

Chaoyu Zhang

University of Toronto - Rotman School of Management ( email )

105 St. George Street
Toronto, Ontario M5S 3E6 M5S1S4
Canada

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