SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Dynamics Should Inform Policy

16 Pages Posted: 21 Sep 2020

See all articles by Muge Cevik

Muge Cevik

University of St. Andrews - Division of Infection and Global Health

Julia Marcus

Harvard Pilgrim Health Care

Caroline Buckee

Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health

Tara Smith

Kent State University - College of Public Health

Date Written: September 14, 2020

Abstract

It is generally agreed that striking a balance between resuming economic and social activities and keeping the effective reproductive number (R0) below 1 using non-pharmaceutical interventions is an important goal until and even after effective vaccines become available. Therefore, the need remains to understand how the virus is transmitted in order to identify high-risk environments and activities that disproportionately contribute to its spread so that effective preventative measures could be put in place. Contact tracing and household studies in particular provide robust evidence about the parameters of transmission. In this viewpoint, we discuss the available evidence from large-scale, well-conducted contact tracing studies from across the world and argue that SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics should inform policy decisions about mitigation strategies for targeted interventions according to the needs of the society by directing attention to the settings, activities and socioeconomic factors associated with the highest risks of transmission.

Note: Funding: None to declare

Declaration of Interest: MC, CB, TS have nothing to declare. JM has consulted for Kaiser Permanente Northern California on a research grant from Gilead Sciences and is supported in part by the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases [K01 AI122853].

Keywords: COVID-19, coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, novel coronavirus, transmission

Suggested Citation

Cevik, Muge and Marcus, Julia and Buckee, Caroline and Smith, Tara, SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Dynamics Should Inform Policy (September 14, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3692807 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3692807

Muge Cevik (Contact Author)

University of St. Andrews - Division of Infection and Global Health ( email )

The Gateway
North Haugh
St Andrews, Fife KY16 9RJ
United Kingdom

Julia Marcus

Harvard Pilgrim Health Care ( email )

93 Worcester Street
Wellesley, 02481
United States

Caroline Buckee

Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health ( email )

Tara Smith

Kent State University - College of Public Health ( email )

PO Box 5190
Kent, OH 44242
United States

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