A Peace Baby Boom? Evidence from Colombia’s Peace Agreement

87 Pages Posted: 7 Nov 2020 Last revised: 27 Nov 2023

See all articles by Maria Elvira Guerra-Cujar

Maria Elvira Guerra-Cujar

Universidad del Rosario

Mounu Prem

Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF)

Paul Andrés Rodríguez-Lesmes

University College London - Department of Economics

Juan Vargas

Universidad del Rosario

Date Written: November 22, 2023

Abstract

Violence affects households’ preferences, perceptions, and constraints regarding fertility choices. What happens when violence ends? Using administrative data from Colombia, we find that the end of a long internal conflict differentially increased fertility by 3.2 percent in areas exposed to violence. The effect is present across all reproductive ages and larger in municipalities with higher levels of violence exposure at baseline. This differential fertility increase is not driven by health supply indicators, by the mortality of newborns and infants, or by differential migration. We provide evidence consistent with an increased perception of security, higher returns for childbearing, and more parental investment.

Keywords: fertility; pregnancy; mortality; armed conflict; violence

JEL Classification: I12; I15

Suggested Citation

Guerra-Cujar, Maria Elvira and Prem, Mounu and Rodríguez-Lesmes, Paul Andrés and Vargas, Juan F., A Peace Baby Boom? Evidence from Colombia’s Peace Agreement (November 22, 2023). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3695131 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3695131

Maria Elvira Guerra-Cujar

Universidad del Rosario ( email )

Calle 12 No. 6-25
Bogota, DC
Colombia

Mounu Prem

Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF) ( email )

Via Due Macelli, 73
Rome, 00187
Italy

Paul Andrés Rodríguez-Lesmes (Contact Author)

University College London - Department of Economics ( email )

Gower Street
London WC1E 6BT, WC1E 6BT
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/paulrodriguezlesmes/

Juan F. Vargas

Universidad del Rosario ( email )

Calle 12 No. 6-25
Bogota, DC
Colombia

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