A Peace Baby Boom? Evidence from Colombia’s Peace Agreement

77 Pages Posted: 7 Nov 2020 Last revised: 1 Jun 2022

See all articles by Maria Elvira Guerra-Cujar

Maria Elvira Guerra-Cujar

Universidad del Rosario

Mounu Prem

Universidad del Rosario

Paul Andrés Rodríguez-Lesmes

University College London - Department of Economics

Juan F. Vargas

Universidad del Rosario

Date Written: June 1, 2022

Abstract

Violence affects households’ preferences, perceptions, and constraints regarding fertility choices. What happens when violence ends? Using administrative data from Colombia, we find that the end of a long internal conflict differentially increased fertility by 2.6 percent in areas exposed to violence. The effect is present across all reproductive ages and larger in municipalities with higher levels of violence exposure at baseline. It is not driven by heath supply indicators, by the mortality of newborns and infants or by differential migration. We interpret this evidence as consistent with an increased optimism to raise children in a better and safer environment.

Keywords: fertility; pregnancy; mortality; armed conflict; violence

JEL Classification: I12; I15

Suggested Citation

Guerra-Cujar, Maria Elvira and Prem, Mounu and Rodríguez-Lesmes, Paul Andrés and Vargas, Juan F., A Peace Baby Boom? Evidence from Colombia’s Peace Agreement (June 1, 2022). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3695131 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3695131

Maria Elvira Guerra-Cujar

Universidad del Rosario ( email )

Calle 12 No. 6-25
Bogota, DC
Colombia

Mounu Prem

Universidad del Rosario ( email )

Casa Pedro Fermín
Calle 14 # 4-69
Bogota
Colombia

Paul Andrés Rodríguez-Lesmes (Contact Author)

University College London - Department of Economics ( email )

Gower Street
London WC1E 6BT, WC1E 6BT
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/paulrodriguezlesmes/

Juan F. Vargas

Universidad del Rosario ( email )

Calle 12 No. 6-25
Bogota, DC
Colombia

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