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Estimation of the Severeness Rate, Death Rate, Household Attack Rate and the Total Number of COVID-19 Cases Based on 16115 Polish Surveillance Records
34 Pages Posted: 22 Oct 2020More...
Background: Estimating the actual number of COVID-19 infections is crucial for steering through the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. It is, however, notoriously difficult, as many cases have no or only mild symptoms. Surveillance data for in-household secondary infections offers unbiased samples for COVID-19 prevalence estimation.
Methods: We analyse 16115 Polish surveillance records to obtain key figures of the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose conservative upper and lower bound estimators for the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Further, we estimate age-dependent bounds on the severe case rate, death rate, and the in-household attack rate.
Findings: By maximum likelihood estimates, the total number of COVID-19 cases in Poland as of July 22nd, 2020, is at most around 13 times larger and at least 1.6 times larger than the recorded number. The lower bound on the severeness rate ranges between 0.2% for the 0--39 year-old to 5.7 % for older than 80, while the upper bound is between 2.6% and 34.1%. The lower bound on the death rate is between 0.04% for the age group 40--59 to 1.34% for the oldest. Overall, the severeness and death rates grows exponentially with age. The in-household attack ratio is 8.18% for the youngest group and 16.88% for the oldest.
Interpretation: The proposed approach derives relevant figures on the COVID-19 pandemic from routine surveillance data, under assumption that household members of detected infected are tested and all severe cases are diagnosed.
Funding Statement: The Polish National Institute of Public Health and the City of Wroclaw provided financial support.
Declaration of Interests: We have no competing interest to disclose.
Keywords: SARS-CoV-2, darkfigure, upper and lower bounds on severe progression and death rates, household attack rate
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