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Estimation of the Severeness Rate, Death Rate, Household Attack Rate and the Total Number of COVID-19 Cases Based on 16115 Polish Surveillance Records

34 Pages Posted: 22 Oct 2020

See all articles by Barbara Adamik

Barbara Adamik

Wroclaw Medical University - Department of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Therapy

Marek Bawiec

Wroclaw University of Science and Technology

Viktor Bezborodov

Wroclaw University of Science and Technology

Przemyslaw Biecek

University of Warsaw

Wolfgang Bock

Technische Universität Kaiserslautern - Technomathematics Group

Marcin Bodych

Wroclaw University of Science and Technology

Jan Pablo Burgard

University of Trier - Faculty of Economics

Tyll Krueger

Wroclaw University of Science and Technology

Agata Migalska

MOCOS International Research Group

International Research Group MOCOS

Independent

Tomasz Ożański

Wroclaw University of Science and Technology

Barbara Pabjan

University of Wroclaw

Magdalena Rosińska

National Institute of Public Health - National Institute of Hygiene

Malgorzata Sadkowska-Todys

National Institute of Public Health - National Institute of Hygiene

Piotr Sobczyk

Wroclaw University of Science and Technology

Ewa Szczurek

University of Warsaw

More...

Abstract

Background: Estimating the actual number of COVID-19 infections is crucial for steering through the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. It is, however, notoriously difficult, as many cases have no or only mild symptoms. Surveillance data for in-household secondary infections offers unbiased samples for COVID-19 prevalence estimation. 

Methods: We analyse 16115  Polish surveillance records to obtain key figures of the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose conservative upper and lower bound estimators for the number of SARS-CoV-2  infections. Further, we estimate age-dependent bounds on the severe case rate, death rate, and the  in-household attack rate. 

Findings: By maximum likelihood estimates, the total number of COVID-19 cases in Poland as of July 22nd, 2020, is at most around 13 times larger and at least 1.6 times larger than the recorded number. The lower bound on the severeness rate ranges between 0.2% for the 0--39 year-old to 5.7 % for older than 80, while the upper bound is between 2.6% and 34.1%. The lower bound on the death rate is between 0.04% for the age group 40--59 to 1.34% for the oldest. Overall, the severeness and death rates grows exponentially with age. The in-household attack ratio is 8.18% for the youngest group and 16.88% for the oldest. 

Interpretation: The proposed approach derives relevant figures on the COVID-19 pandemic from routine surveillance data, under assumption that household members of detected infected are tested and all severe cases are diagnosed.

Funding Statement: The Polish National Institute of Public Health and the City of Wroclaw provided financial support.

Declaration of Interests: We have no competing interest to disclose.

Keywords: SARS-CoV-2, darkfigure, upper and lower bounds on severe progression and death rates, household attack rate

Suggested Citation

Adamik, Barbara and Bawiec, Marek and Bezborodov, Viktor and Biecek, Przemyslaw and Bock, Wolfgang and Bodych, Marcin and Burgard, Jan Pablo and Krueger, Tyll and Migalska, Agata and MOCOS, International Research Group and Ożański, Tomasz and Pabjan, Barbara and Rosińska, Magdalena and Sadkowska-Todys, Malgorzata and Sobczyk, Piotr and Szczurek, Ewa, Estimation of the Severeness Rate, Death Rate, Household Attack Rate and the Total Number of COVID-19 Cases Based on 16115 Polish Surveillance Records. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3696786 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3696786

Barbara Adamik

Wroclaw Medical University - Department of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Therapy ( email )

Poland

Marek Bawiec

Wroclaw University of Science and Technology ( email )

Viktor Bezborodov

Wroclaw University of Science and Technology ( email )

Przemyslaw Biecek

University of Warsaw ( email )

Krakowskie Przedmiescie 26/28
Warszawa, Pl-00681
Poland

Wolfgang Bock

Technische Universität Kaiserslautern - Technomathematics Group

Gottlieb-Daimler-Straße 47
Kaiserslautern, DE 67663

Marcin Bodych

Wroclaw University of Science and Technology ( email )

Jan Pablo Burgard (Contact Author)

University of Trier - Faculty of Economics ( email )

Germany

Tyll Krueger

Wroclaw University of Science and Technology ( email )

Agata Migalska

MOCOS International Research Group ( email )

Tomasz Ożański

Wroclaw University of Science and Technology ( email )

Barbara Pabjan

University of Wroclaw ( email )

50-384 Wroclaw
Grunwaldzki 2/4, Lower Silesia Province 50-137
Poland

Magdalena Rosińska

National Institute of Public Health - National Institute of Hygiene ( email )

Chocimska 24
00-791 Warsaw
Poland

Malgorzata Sadkowska-Todys

National Institute of Public Health - National Institute of Hygiene ( email )

Chocimska 24
00-791 Warsaw
Poland

Piotr Sobczyk

Wroclaw University of Science and Technology

Ewa Szczurek

University of Warsaw ( email )

Krakowskie Przedmiescie 26/28
Warszawa, Pl-00681
Poland

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