The Authoritarian Trade-off: A Synthetic Control Analysis of Development and Social Compliance in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region

Abstract

The Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR) has recently experienced a series of policies sought to bring economic development, as well as intensive methods of social compliance. A unique leader—Chen Quanguo—along with the Communist Party of China (CPC), brought these changes in the XUAR in 2016. We use the synthetic control method to analyze the effect that these policies had on the region. We specifically examine three outcomes: GDP per capita, arrest rates, and spending on public security. Our findings suggest that Chen and the policies implemented had no significant effect on development, but these policies led to much higher rates of arrest and larger spending on public security.

Keywords: Xinjiang, regional development, China, Synthetic Control Method, religious persecution

JEL Classification: K38, K42, P37, R11