Modelling the Impact of Non‐Tariff Measures on Supply Chains in ASEAN

27 Pages Posted: 30 Sep 2020

See all articles by Mike Webb

Mike Webb

University of Waikato - Department of Economics and Finance

Anna Strutt

University of Waikato

John Gibson

University of Waikato; Motu Economic and Public Policy Research

Terrie Walmsley

ImpactECON, LLC; University of Southern California - Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE)

Date Written: August 1, 2020

Abstract

This paper explores the impact of reducing non‐tariff measures (NTMs) in major ASEAN countries. New econometric estimates of the impact of different types of NTMs are used in a global supply chain model to separately model the effects on intermediate products and those sold to final consumers. We also distinguish between whether the NTM cost burden is directed at exporters or importers. This paper makes important advances in modelling the heterogeneity of NTMs, offering much richer policy analysis of the impact of NTMs on supply chains in the Asia‐Pacific region than has previously been possible. We illustrate the benefits, both to the major ASEAN countries and to their trading partners, from the partial liberalisation by ASEAN countries of their most trade distorting types of NTMs. Such liberalisation increases the GDP and welfare of all countries, with the effect particularly pronounced for the major ASEAN countries themselves, especially Vietnam and the Philippines. As trade in plant products and animal products is particularly affected by NTMs, these sectors show the largest expansion of trade.

Keywords: ASEAN, CGE modelling, gravity model, international trade, non‐tariff measures, supply chains

Suggested Citation

Webb, Mike and Strutt, Anna and Gibson, John and Walmsley, Terrie, Modelling the Impact of Non‐Tariff Measures on Supply Chains in ASEAN (August 1, 2020). The World Economy, Vol. 43, Issue 8, pp. 2172-2198, 2020, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3700075 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/twec.12955

Mike Webb (Contact Author)

University of Waikato - Department of Economics and Finance

Private Bag 3105
Hamilton, 3105
New Zealand

Anna Strutt

University of Waikato ( email )

Te Raupapa
Private Bag 3105
Hamilton, 3240
New Zealand

John Gibson

University of Waikato ( email )

Te Raupapa
Private Bag 3105
Hamilton, 3240
New Zealand

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research

19 Milne Terrace
Island Bay
Wellington, 6002
New Zealand

Terrie Walmsley

ImpactECON, LLC ( email )

1942 Broadway
Suite 314
Boulder, CO 80302
United States

University of Southern California - Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) ( email )

United States

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