Using Soccer Games as an Instrument to Forecast the Spread of COVID-19 in Europe

22 Pages Posted: 5 Oct 2020 Last revised: 22 Feb 2021

See all articles by Juan-Pedro Gomez

Juan-Pedro Gomez

IE Business School - IE University

Maxim Mironov

IE Business School, IE University

Date Written: September 28, 2020

Abstract

We provide strong empirical support for the contribution of soccer games held in Europe to the spread of the COVID-19 virus in March 2020. We analyze more than 1,000 games across 194 regions from 10 European countries. Daily cases of COVID-19 grow significantly faster in regions where at least one soccer game took place two weeks earlier, consistent with the existence of an incubation period. These results weaken as we include stadiums with smaller capacity. We discuss the relevance of these variables as instruments for the identification of the causal effect of COVID-19 on firms, the economy, and financial markets.

Note: Funding: Research Reported in this paper was partially funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MCIU), State Research Agency (AEI) and European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) Grant No. PGC2018-101745-A-I00.

Conflict of Interest: None.

Keywords: COVID-19, soccer, super-spreaders, instrumental variables, identification strategy

JEL Classification: I18, C36, G01

Suggested Citation

Gomez, Juan-Pedro and Mironov, Maxim, Using Soccer Games as an Instrument to Forecast the Spread of COVID-19 in Europe (September 28, 2020). Finance Research Letters, Forthcoming, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3701022 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3701022

Juan-Pedro Gomez (Contact Author)

IE Business School - IE University ( email )

Calle Maria de Molina 12
Madrid, Madrid 28006
Spain
+34 917821326 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.ie.edu/faculty/juan-pedro-gomez/

Maxim Mironov

IE Business School, IE University ( email )

Calle Maria de Molina 12, 4izda
Madrid, Madrid 28006
Spain

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