The Impact of Differing COVID-19 Mitigation Policies: Three Natural Experiments

26 Pages Posted: 5 Oct 2020 Last revised: 12 Oct 2020

See all articles by Kingsley E. Haynes

Kingsley E. Haynes

Schar School of Policy and Government, George Mason University

Rajendra Kulkarni

Schar School of Policy & Government, GMU

Meng-Hao Li

George Mason University

Abu Bakkar Siddique

Goerge Mason University

Date Written: September 28, 2020

Abstract

This paper presents a comparison of the COVID-19 infections between a select pair of neighboring states and their border county regions where the policies of the Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPI) such as Lockdown/Stay-at-Home differ. These analyses use a Difference-in-Differences (Diff-in Diff) model to test the effectiveness of NPI in mitigating COVID-19 infections at the state and border county regions between these states. The counties are in the states on the Iowa and Illinois border, the Dakotas (North and South) and Minnesota border and the Arkansas and Mississippi border. In each case the policies on each side of the border differ and the border is clearly designated by a river separation. Based on the Diff-in-Diff model output, state policies appear to make a significant difference in some of these specific border regions, at least early in the pandemic (April-June 2020). State level results are mixed reflecting spatial heterogeneity across the inter-state system.

Note: Funding: We are funded by a small education research grant from the Schar Foundation: "Schar Initiative fund".

Conflict of Interest: We have no conflict of interest with respect to our research or findings.

Keywords: COVID-19, US Infection rates, Difference-in-Difference Model, Mitigation Policies, Natural Experiments

JEL Classification: Z18, R00, R10, B00, B49

Suggested Citation

Haynes, Kingsley E. and Kulkarni, Rajendra and Li, Meng-Hao and Siddique, Abu Bakkar, The Impact of Differing COVID-19 Mitigation Policies: Three Natural Experiments (September 28, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3702606 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3702606

Kingsley E. Haynes (Contact Author)

Schar School of Policy and Government, George Mason University ( email )

Founders Hall
3351 Fairfax Dr.
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Rajendra Kulkarni

Schar School of Policy & Government, GMU ( email )

Founders Hall
3351 Fairfax Dr.
Arlington, VA 22201
United States

Meng-Hao Li

George Mason University

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3351 Fairfax Drive, MS 3B1
Arlington, VA 22201
United States

Abu Bakkar Siddique

Goerge Mason University ( email )

3351 Fairfax Dr.
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Arlington, VA 22201
United States
15712745328 (Phone)

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