Agent Based Models to Understand Diffusion of Low Carbon Road Transport Technologies: A Review of Application and Approaches

Abstract

The transportation sector accounts for the largest consumption of non-renewable energy globally, highlighting the need for a broader understanding of alternative paths towards mitigating this status. Technological advancement is on the rise and with increasing policy support, studies present diverse approaches on evaluation of policy mix options to stimulate adoption of these technologies. Of interest to this paper is the agent-based modelling (ABM) approach, which is a methodology that integrates dynamics of behavioural decisions that are largely exhibited in several aspects of transport activities and the energy system. In this regard, we review ABM studies that investigate opportunities for alternative low carbon road transport technologies. In general, the literature shows a large presence of ABM application to transport related studies, with many finding opportunities for diffusion of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs). However, most of the studies in literature neglect to explore the emissions savings implications, which is important, as it provides a scale to compare emissions savings by fuel/vehicle technology type, while providing more convincing findings for transport policy makers through quantitative indicators. Studies that encompass ABM application to AFVs and its emissions implications are quite limited. A systematic literature search resulted in identification of only 7 relevant articles in this regard. Findings suggest research gaps in AFV-ABM studies with opportunity for a model that integrates emissions measure and savings.

Keywords: agent based model, road transport technologies, methodology gap, emissions measure and reduction

JEL Classification: R42, R48