The Conflict of Nagorno-Karabakh: Moving Towards Peace

14 Pages Posted: 18 Nov 2020

See all articles by Aleksandr Grigoryan

Aleksandr Grigoryan

American University of Armenia

Knar Khachatryan

American University of Armenia

Date Written: September 30, 2020

Abstract

In this paper we discuss the conflict of Nagorno-Karabakh in the framework of game theory. Observing the current state of the conflict, we conclude that there is no sustainable or pure strategy equilibrium. The game is possible to solve for mixed strategies, based on maximizing expected payoffs of conflict parties. Then, we discuss how Armenia can prevent Azerbaijan to restart the war through a proper selection of policy components in its payoff structure. We argue that Armenia should be more active in international lobbying for Nagorno-Karabakh’s independence, as it will ultimately increase the probability of peaceful solution. The recent large-scale war, initiated by Azerbaijan in September 27th, 2020, can be a natural test for the suggested game structure and implied peacebuilding policies. According to the game, Azerbaijan will fail to resolve the conflict via military means despite of the on-going large-scale war and will be compelled to join the negotiations.

Keywords: Conflict, peaceful resolution, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh

JEL Classification: C70, D74, F51, N40

Suggested Citation

Grigoryan, Aleksandr and Khachatryan, Knar, The Conflict of Nagorno-Karabakh: Moving Towards Peace (September 30, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3702793 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3702793

Aleksandr Grigoryan (Contact Author)

American University of Armenia ( email )

40, Baghramyan Ave.
Yerevan, 0019
United States

Knar Khachatryan

American University of Armenia ( email )

40, Baghramyan Ave.
Yerevan, 0019
United States

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