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Stay-at-Home Policy: Is it a Case of Exception Fallacy? An Internet-Based Ecological Study
36 Pages Posted: 7 Oct 2020More...
Background: A recent mathematical model has suggested that staying at home did not play a dominant role in reducing COVID-19 transmission. Our objective was to verify if staying at home reduced COVID-19 mortality rates.
Methods: In this ecological study, data from www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ , ourworldindata.org and covid.saude.gov.br were combined. Countries with >100 deaths and with a Healthcare Access and Quality Index of ≥67 were included. Data were preprocessed and analyzed using the difference between number of deaths/million between 2 regions and the difference between the percentage of staying at home. Analysis was performed using linear regression and residual analysis.
Findings: After preprocessing the data, 87 regions around the world were included, yielding 3,741 pairwise comparisons for linear regression analysis. Only 63 (1·6%) comparisons were significant.
Interpretation: With our results, we were not able to explain if COVID-19 mortality is reduced by staying at home in ~98% of the comparisons after epidemiological weeks 9 to 34.
Funding Statement: No funding.
Declaration of Interests: All authors have no conflict of interest.
Keywords: COVID19, mortality, linear regression, Big Data
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation