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Stay-at-Home Policy: Is it a Case of Exception Fallacy? An Internet-Based Ecological Study

36 Pages Posted: 7 Oct 2020

See all articles by Ricardo F. Savaris

Ricardo F. Savaris

Hospital de Porto Alegre - Department of Ginecologia e Obstetrícia

Guilherme Pumi

Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Mathematics and Statistics Institute

Jovani Dalzochio

University of Vale do Rio dos Sinos (UNISINOS)

Rafael Kunst

University of Vale do Rio dos Sinos (UNISINOS)

More...

Abstract

Background: A recent mathematical model has suggested that staying at home did not play a dominant role in reducing COVID-19 transmission. Our objective was to verify if staying at home reduced COVID-19 mortality rates. 

Methods: In this ecological study, data from www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ , ourworldindata.org and covid.saude.gov.br were combined. Countries with >100 deaths and with a Healthcare Access and Quality Index of ≥67 were included. Data were preprocessed and analyzed using the difference between number of deaths/million between 2 regions and the difference between the percentage of staying at home. Analysis was performed using linear regression and residual analysis. 

Findings: After preprocessing the data, 87 regions around the world were included, yielding 3,741 pairwise comparisons for linear regression analysis. Only 63 (1·6%) comparisons were significant. 

Interpretation: With our results, we were not able to explain if COVID-19 mortality is reduced by staying at home in ~98% of the comparisons after epidemiological weeks 9 to 34.

Funding Statement: No funding.

Declaration of Interests: All authors have no conflict of interest.

Keywords: COVID19, mortality, linear regression, Big Data

Suggested Citation

Savaris, Ricardo F. and Pumi, Guilherme and Dalzochio, Jovani and Kunst, Rafael, Stay-at-Home Policy: Is it a Case of Exception Fallacy? An Internet-Based Ecological Study. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3702928 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3702928

Ricardo F. Savaris (Contact Author)

Hospital de Porto Alegre - Department of Ginecologia e Obstetrícia ( email )

Porto Alegre
Brazil

Guilherme Pumi

Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Mathematics and Statistics Institute ( email )

Jovani Dalzochio

University of Vale do Rio dos Sinos (UNISINOS) ( email )

Rafael Kunst

University of Vale do Rio dos Sinos (UNISINOS) ( email )

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