Validity, Tightness, and Forecasting Power of Risk Premium Bounds

88 Pages Posted: 21 Nov 2020 Last revised: 13 Jan 2022

See all articles by Kerry Back

Kerry Back

Rice University - Jesse H. Jones Graduate School of Business

Kevin Crotty

Rice University - Jesse H. Jones Graduate School of Business

Seyed Mohammad Kazempour

Rice University - Jesse H. Jones Graduate School of Business

Date Written: October 2, 2020

Abstract

Recent work uses option prices to derive lower bounds for the risk premia of the market portfolio and individual stocks. We test the bounds conditionally. We cannot reject that they are valid, but we do reject that they are tight. Using the market bounds as forecasts appears unreasonable in many cases due to their high slackness. Adding past mean slackness is a potential improvement but is hampered by the brevity of the available data series. The correlation of the stock bounds with subsequent returns stems primarily from the time series rather than the cross section.

Keywords: Risk premia, bounds, conditional tests, predictability

JEL Classification: G12, G13, G14

Suggested Citation

Back, Kerry and Crotty, Kevin and Kazempour, Seyed Mohammad, Validity, Tightness, and Forecasting Power of Risk Premium Bounds (October 2, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3704908 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3704908

Kerry Back

Rice University - Jesse H. Jones Graduate School of Business ( email )

6100 South Main Street
P.O. Box 1892
Houston, TX 77005-1892
United States

Kevin Crotty (Contact Author)

Rice University - Jesse H. Jones Graduate School of Business ( email )

6100 Main Street
Houston, TX 77005-1892
United States

Seyed Mohammad Kazempour

Rice University - Jesse H. Jones Graduate School of Business ( email )

6100 South Main Street
P.O. Box 1892
Houston, TX 77005-1892
United States

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