Forecasting Market Shares from Models for Sales

19 Pages Posted: 20 Jan 2003

See all articles by D. Fok

D. Fok

Econometric Institute - Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM); Tinbergen Institute Rotterdam

Philip Hans Franses

Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR) - Department of Econometrics

Date Written: 29 2000 3,

Abstract

Dividing forecasts of brand sales by a forecast of category sales, when they are generated from brand specific sales-response models, renders biased forecasts of the brands' market shares. In this paper we therefore propose an easy-to-apply simulation-based method which results in unbiased forecasts of the market shares. An illustration for five tuna fish brands emphasizes the practical relevance of the advocated method.

Keywords: sales models, market shares, forecasting

JEL Classification: M, M31, C53

Suggested Citation

Fok, Dennis and Franses, Philip Hans, Forecasting Market Shares from Models for Sales (29 2000 3,). ERIM Report Series Reference No. ERS-2000-03-MKT. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=370805

Dennis Fok (Contact Author)

Econometric Institute - Erasmus University Rotterdam ( email )

P.O. Box 1738
3000 DR Rotterdam
Netherlands

Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM) ( email )

P.O. Box 1738
3000 DR Rotterdam
Netherlands
+31 10 408 1333 (Phone)
+31 10 408 9162 (Fax)

Tinbergen Institute Rotterdam ( email )

P.O. Box 1738
3000 DR Rotterdam
Netherlands

Philip Hans Franses

Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR) - Department of Econometrics ( email )

P.O. Box 1738
3000 DR Rotterdam
Netherlands
+31 10 408 1278 (Phone)
+31 10 408 9162 (Fax)

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