Forecasting Market Shares from Models for Sales
19 Pages Posted: 20 Jan 2003
Date Written: 29 2000 3,
Dividing forecasts of brand sales by a forecast of category sales, when they are generated from brand specific sales-response models, renders biased forecasts of the brands' market shares. In this paper we therefore propose an easy-to-apply simulation-based method which results in unbiased forecasts of the market shares. An illustration for five tuna fish brands emphasizes the practical relevance of the advocated method.
Keywords: sales models, market shares, forecasting
JEL Classification: M, M31, C53
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation