Modeling Generational Transitions from Aggregate Data

37 Pages Posted: 18 Feb 2003

See all articles by Philip Hans Franses

Philip Hans Franses

Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR) - Department of Econometrics

S. Stremersch

Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR) - Erasmus School of Economics (ESE)

Date Written: 16 2002 5,

Abstract

Using only aggregate sales data, the model we propose decomposes the diffusion processes of the respective technological generations and tests if different technological generations have different diffusion parameters. It also estimates the location of the generational transition from the old to the new technology. We develop a routine to test whether the maturation point of the old generation occurs before or after the transition to a new technological generation. Finally, we show that, when the aggregate sales data are generated by multiple technological generations, our model does better in forecasting than a single-regime Bass model.

Keywords: technological generations, regime-switching models, diffusion modeling

JEL Classification: M, M31, C44, O33

Suggested Citation

Franses, Philip Hans and Stremersch, Stefan, Modeling Generational Transitions from Aggregate Data (16 2002 5,). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=370993

Philip Hans Franses (Contact Author)

Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR) - Department of Econometrics ( email )

P.O. Box 1738
3000 DR Rotterdam
Netherlands
+31 10 408 1278 (Phone)
+31 10 408 9162 (Fax)

Stefan Stremersch

Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR) - Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) ( email )

P.O. Box 1738
3000 DR Rotterdam, NL 3062 PA
Netherlands
+31 10 408 8719 (Phone)
+31 10 408 9160 (Fax)

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