Towards Recovery: Scientists With Better Ratings of Their Institution’s Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic Have More Optimistic Forecasts About Their Future Research

30 Pages Posted: 20 Oct 2020 Last revised: 8 Dec 2020

See all articles by Kyle Myers

Kyle Myers

Harvard University - Technology & Operations Management Unit

Karim R. Lakhani

Harvard Business School - Technology and Operations Management Group; Harvard Institute for Quantitative Social Science; Harvard University - Berkman Klein Center for Internet & Society

Dashun Wang

Northwestern University - Northwestern Institute for Complex Systems (NICO)

Date Written: October 14, 2020

Abstract

Using a survey with randomized elements and truth-telling incentives, we document scientists’ beliefs about current and future disruptions to their research and how these beliefs depend on the eventual length of the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, scientists with more favorable ratings of their institution’s response to the pandemic have more optimistic forecasts, even when controlling for their current level of disruptions. This relationship holds even amongst groups with the most pessimistic forecasts, who should be prioritized as science policy responses continue to develop.

Keywords: COVID-19, scientists, science policy, forecasts, institutions

JEL Classification: O30, O31, O32, O43

Suggested Citation

Myers, Kyle and Lakhani, Karim R. and Wang, Dashun, Towards Recovery: Scientists With Better Ratings of Their Institution’s Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic Have More Optimistic Forecasts About Their Future Research (October 14, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3712876 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3712876

Kyle Myers (Contact Author)

Harvard University - Technology & Operations Management Unit ( email )

Boston, MA 02163
United States

Karim R. Lakhani

Harvard Business School - Technology and Operations Management Group ( email )

Boston, MA 02163
United States
617-495-6741 (Phone)

Harvard Institute for Quantitative Social Science ( email )

1737 Cambridge St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Harvard University - Berkman Klein Center for Internet & Society ( email )

Harvard Law School
23 Everett, 2nd Floor
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Dashun Wang

Northwestern University - Northwestern Institute for Complex Systems (NICO) ( email )

Chambers Hall
600 Foster Street
Evanston, IL 60208-4057
United States

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