Towards Recovery: Scientists With Better Ratings of Their Institution’s Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic Have More Optimistic Forecasts About Their Future Research
30 Pages Posted: 20 Oct 2020 Last revised: 8 Dec 2020
Date Written: October 14, 2020
Using a survey with randomized elements and truth-telling incentives, we document scientists’ beliefs about current and future disruptions to their research and how these beliefs depend on the eventual length of the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, scientists with more favorable ratings of their institution’s response to the pandemic have more optimistic forecasts, even when controlling for their current level of disruptions. This relationship holds even amongst groups with the most pessimistic forecasts, who should be prioritized as science policy responses continue to develop.
Keywords: COVID-19, scientists, science policy, forecasts, institutions
JEL Classification: O30, O31, O32, O43
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation