A Five-Year Retroactive Analysis of Cut Score Impact: California’s Proposed Supervised Provisional License Program

20 Pages Posted: 11 Nov 2020

See all articles by Mitchel Winick

Mitchel Winick

MONTEREY COLLEGE OF LAW

Victor D. Quintanilla

Indiana University Maurer School of Law

Sam Erman

USC Gould School of Law

Christina Chong-Nakatsuchi

MONTEREY COLLEGE OF LAW

Michael Frisby

University of Michigan

Date Written: October 23, 2020

Abstract

A five-year cohort of 39,737 examinees who sat for the California Bar Exam (“CBX”) between 2014-18 was analyzed using a simulation model based on actual exam results to evaluate how the minimum passing scores (“cut score”) of 1440, 1390, 1350, 1330, and 1300, if used as qualifying scores for a provisional licensing program, would affect the number of previous examinees, by race and ethnicity, who would qualify to participate within retroactive groupings of five-year, four-year, three-year, two-year, and one-year examinee cohorts.

The result of the simulation models indicated that selecting a qualifying score lower than the current California cut score of 1390 will significantly increase both the overall number of eligible participants and the diversity of the group eligible to participate in the proposed alternate licensing program.

This study follows an initial study of 85,727 examinees of the CBX from 2009-18 titled, Examining the California Cut Score: An Empirical Analysis of Minimum Competency, Public Protection, Disparate Impact, and National Standards that determined maintaining a high cut score does not result in greater public protection as measured by disciplinary statistics, but does result in excluding minorities from admission to the bar and the practice of law at rates disproportionately higher than Whites.

Suggested Citation

Winick, Mitchel and Quintanilla, Victor David and Erman, Sam and Chong-Nakatsuchi, Christina and Frisby, Michael, A Five-Year Retroactive Analysis of Cut Score Impact: California’s Proposed Supervised Provisional License Program (October 23, 2020). AccessLex Institute Research Paper, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3716951 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3716951

Mitchel Winick (Contact Author)

MONTEREY COLLEGE OF LAW ( email )

100 COL DURHAM STREET
SEASIDE, CA 93955
United States
83158240001015 (Phone)
93955 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.montereylaw.edu

Victor David Quintanilla

Indiana University Maurer School of Law ( email )

211 S. Indiana Avenue
Bloomington, IN 47405
United States

Sam Erman

USC Gould School of Law ( email )

699 Exposition Boulevard
Los Angeles, CA 90089
United States

Christina Chong-Nakatsuchi

MONTEREY COLLEGE OF LAW ( email )

100 COL DURHAM STREET
SEASIDE, CA 93955
United States
83158240001015 (Phone)
93955 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.montereylaw.edu

Michael Frisby

University of Michigan ( email )

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