Monetary Policy Effects in Times of Negative Interest Rates: What do Bank Stock Prices Tell Us?

53 Pages Posted: 28 Oct 2020

See all articles by Joost Bats

Joost Bats

De Nederlandsche Bank

Massimo Giuliodori

University of Amsterdam - Faculty of Economics & Econometrics (FEE); Tinbergen Institute

Aerdt Houben

De Nederlandsche Bank - Monetary and Economic Policy Department

Date Written: October 22, 2020

Abstract

Do negative interest rates matter for bank performance? This paper investigates whether monetary policy surprises impact bank stock prices differently in times of positive and negative interest rates. The analysis controls for broad stock market movements and finds that an unanticipated downward shift in the yield curve and a flattening of the shorter-end of the yield curve resulting from monetary policy announcements reduce bank stock prices in a low and especially negative interest rate environment. The effects persist in the days after the monetary policy announcement and are larger for banks relatively dependent on deposit funding. By contrast, a surprise movement in the slope of the longer-end of the yield curve does not impact bank stock prices in a negative interest rate environment. The results indicate that when market interest rates are negative but deposit rates stuck at zero, monetary policy instruments that target the longer-end of the yield curve are less detrimental to bank performance than those that target the shorter-end of the yield curve.

Keywords: Monetary policy, bank stock prices, negative interest rates

JEL Classification: E43, E44, E52, G12, G21

Suggested Citation

Bats, Joost and Giuliodori, Massimo and Houben, Aerdt, Monetary Policy Effects in Times of Negative Interest Rates: What do Bank Stock Prices Tell Us? (October 22, 2020). De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper No. 694, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3720459 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3720459

Joost Bats (Contact Author)

De Nederlandsche Bank ( email )

PO Box 98
1000 AB Amsterdam
Amsterdam, 1000 AB
Netherlands

Massimo Giuliodori

University of Amsterdam - Faculty of Economics & Econometrics (FEE) ( email )

Roetersstraat 11
Amsterdam, 1018 WB
Netherlands

Tinbergen Institute ( email )

Gustav Mahlerplein 117
Amsterdam, 1082 MS
Netherlands

Aerdt Houben

De Nederlandsche Bank - Monetary and Economic Policy Department ( email )

Westeinde 1
1017 ZN Amsterdam
Netherlands

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