Violent Crime and the Long Shadow of Immigration Enforcement: Evidence from Mexico

Abstract

Whereas the literature on post-deportation experiences has emphasized difficult labor market integration and social stigma associated with enforced return, its broader effects in migrants’ communities of origin have remained largely unexplored. Using migrant’s exposure to deportation threats at destination as an exogenous source of identification, this paper traces the long shadow of immigration enforcement on violent crime in Mexico, receiver of more than 3.5 million deportees from the US over the period 2000 to 2015. Enforced return leads to more homicides and a stronger presence of cartels in migrants’ municipalities of origin, as well as a higher sense of insecurity among the population and a higher probability of being assaulted or kidnapped. These local effects of enforced return are a first step towards unpacking the various direct and indirect channels through which immigration enforcement affects migrants’ communities of origin.

Keywords: Immigration Enforcement, Violence, Organized Crime, Deportations, Mexico

JEL Classification: D74, F22, O15