House Prices and Rents

Abstract

Variation in monthly metro area house prices unrelated to expected rents clouds the information about future rents in price-rent ratios and lagged changes in house prices. The variation in house prices unrelated to expected rents is, however, correlated across areas, and the problem is mitigated by measuring rent growth regression variables net of their monthly cross-section (across-area) means. This control for price variation unrelated to expected rents substantially enhances the information about future rents that we extract from price-rent ratios and lagged changes in house prices.