Drivers of Global Trade: A Product-Level Investigation

International Economic Journal, Forthcoming

26 Pages Posted: 13 Jan 2021 Last revised: 11 Sep 2021

See all articles by HAKAN YILMAZKUDAY

HAKAN YILMAZKUDAY

Florida International University (FIU) - Department of Economics

Date Written: August 17, 2021

Abstract

This paper investigates the drivers of global trade at the six-digit product level. The identification is achieved first by estimating the log-linear product-level bilateral trade implications of a model and second by aggregating the fitted estimation results across bilateral countries using Taylor series to obtain global measures in levels for each product. The empirical results suggest that supply-side effects (capturing production or exporting costs in source countries) contribute to changes in global trade more than six times the demand-side effects (capturing economic activity or preferences in destination countries) and more than ten times the effects of bilateral trade costs (capturing bilateral protectionism measures). Several product-level implications follow.

Keywords: Global Trade; Product-Level Analysis; Decomposition

JEL Classification: F14, F60

Suggested Citation

Yilmazkuday, Hakan, Drivers of Global Trade: A Product-Level Investigation (August 17, 2021). International Economic Journal, Forthcoming, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3726709 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3726709

Hakan Yilmazkuday (Contact Author)

Florida International University (FIU) - Department of Economics ( email )

11200 SW 8th Street
Miami, FL 33199
United States

HOME PAGE: http://faculty.fiu.edu/~hyilmazk/

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