Spatial Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and Reduced Risk of Contagion: Evidence from the Second Italian Epidemic Wave

Abstract

We highlight a negative association between the severity of the first-wave of SARS-Cov-2 and the spread of the virus during the second-wave. Analyzing data of a sample of municipalities from the Italian region of Lombardy, we find that a one standard deviation increase in excess of mortality during the first-wave is associated with a reduction of approximately 30% in the number of detected infected individuals in the initial phase of the second-wave. Our findings may reflect a behavioral response in more severely hit areas as well as a cross-protection between successive waves.

Note: Funding: The authors did not not receive any funding for this project.

Declaration of Interests: The authors have no conflicting interest to declare.

Keywords: COVID-19; Sars-Cov-2; Diffusion models; Containment measures

JEL Classification: I10; I18