Spatial Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and Reduced Risk of Contagion: Evidence from the Second Italian Epidemic Wave

12 Pages Posted: 11 Nov 2020

See all articles by Paolo Buonanno

Paolo Buonanno

University of Bergamo

Sergio Galletta

University of Bergamo; ETH Zürich

Marcello Puca

University of Bergamo; Webster University - Webster University Geneva

Date Written: November 8, 2020

Abstract

We highlight a negative association between the severity of the first-wave of SARS-Cov-2 and the spread of the virus during the second-wave. Analyzing data of a sample of municipalities from the Italian region of Lombardy, we find that a one standard deviation increase in excess of mortality during the first-wave is associated with a reduction of approximately 30% in the number of detected infected individuals in the initial phase of the second-wave. Our findings may reflect a behavioral response in more severely hit areas as well as a cross-protection between successive waves.

Note: Funding: The authors did not not receive any funding for this project.

Declaration of Interests: The authors have no conflicting interest to declare.

Keywords: COVID-19; Sars-Cov-2; Diffusion models; Containment measures

JEL Classification: I10; I18

Suggested Citation

Buonanno, Paolo and Galletta, Sergio and Puca, Marcello, Spatial Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and Reduced Risk of Contagion: Evidence from the Second Italian Epidemic Wave (November 8, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3727008 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3727008

Sergio Galletta

University of Bergamo ( email )

Via Salvecchio, 19
Bergamo, 24129
Italy

ETH Zürich ( email )

Rämistrasse 101
ZUE F7
Zürich, 8092
Switzerland

Marcello Puca (Contact Author)

University of Bergamo ( email )

Via dei Caniana 2
Bergamo, 24127
Italy

Webster University - Webster University Geneva ( email )

Route de Collex 15
Bellevue, CH- 1293
Switzerland

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