Pandemics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the 1968 H3N2 Influenza

22 Pages Posted: 10 Nov 2020

See all articles by Yothin Jinjarak

Yothin Jinjarak

Victoria University of Wellington - School of Economics & Finance

Ilan Noy

Victoria University of Wellington

Quy Ta

Victoria University of Wellington

Date Written: 2020

Abstract

We evaluate the 1968 H3N2 Flu pandemic’s economic cost in a cross-section of 52 countries. Using excess mortality rates as a proxy for the country-specific severity of the pandemic, we find that the average mortality rate (0.0062% per pandemic wave) was associated with declines in consumption (-1.9%), investment (-1.2%), output (-2.4%), and productivity (-1.9%). Our main findings highlight the role of both negative demand-side and supply-side shocks in the flu pandemic’s aftermath.

JEL Classification: E650, I150, Q540

Suggested Citation

Jinjarak, Yothin and Noy, Ilan and Ta, Quy, Pandemics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the 1968 H3N2 Influenza (2020). CESifo Working Paper No. 8672, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3727747

Yothin Jinjarak

Victoria University of Wellington - School of Economics & Finance ( email )

P.O. Box 600
Wellington 6001
New Zealand

Ilan Noy

Victoria University of Wellington ( email )

P.O. Box 600
Wellington, 6140
New Zealand

Quy Ta (Contact Author)

Victoria University of Wellington ( email )

P.O. Box 600
Wellington, 6140
New Zealand

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