The Price of Populism: Financial Market Outcomes of Populist Electoral Success

49 Pages Posted: 31 Dec 2020 Last revised: 26 Apr 2021

See all articles by Sebastian Stöckl

Sebastian Stöckl

University of Liechtenstein

Martin Rode

University of Navarra

Date Written: April 26, 2021

Abstract

Following financial research on the importance of public policy for asset prices, we hypothesize that the success of populist movements impacts risk assessments in financial markets. Building a novel dataset, findings show for a sample of Western democracies that the success of populist parties has a direct impact on volatility in major domestic market indexes, measured from option prices spanning national elections. Despite its anti-capitalist rhetoric, the political insecurity generated by populist movements on the far left only partially translates into financial insecurity in the context of institutionalized democracies. In turn, we find the electoral success of right-wing populists to reduce risk assessments, which could be driven by its frequent association with rent-seeking and big business.

Keywords: Populism, Elections, Political uncertainty, Option markets, Implied volatility, Political ideology

JEL Classification: G12, G18, P16, P43

Suggested Citation

Stöckl, Sebastian and Rode, Martin, The Price of Populism: Financial Market Outcomes of Populist Electoral Success (April 26, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3728553 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3728553

Sebastian Stöckl (Contact Author)

University of Liechtenstein ( email )

Fürst-Franz-Josef-Strasse
Vaduz, FL-9490
Liechtenstein

HOME PAGE: http://www.uni.li/sebastian.stoeckl

Martin Rode

University of Navarra ( email )

Camino del Cerro del Aguila, 3
Pamplona, Navarra 31080
Spain

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