An Early Assessment of Curfew and Second COVID-19 Lock-Down on Virus Propagation in France

10 Pages Posted: 18 Nov 2020

See all articles by Christelle Baunez

Christelle Baunez

Institut de Neurosciences de la Timone (INT)

Mickael Degoulet

Aix-Marseille University

Stephane Luchini

National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) - Research Group in Quantitative Saving (GREQAM), EHESS

Patrick Pintus

Aix-Marseille University and CNRS

Miriam Teschl

Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS)

Date Written: November 12, 2020

Abstract

This note provides an early assessment of the reinforced measures to curb the COVID-19 pandemic in France, which include a curfew of selected areas and culminate in a second COVID-19-related lock-down that started on October 30, 2020 and is still ongoing. We analyse the change in virus propagation across age groups and across départements using an acceleration index introduced in Baunez et al. 2020.We find that while the pandemic is still in the acceleration regime, acceleration decreased notably with curfew measures and this more rapidly so for the more vulnerable population group, that is, for people older than 60. Acceleration continued to decline under lock-down, but more so for the active population under 60 than for those above 60. For the youngest population aged 0 to 19, curfew measures did not reduce acceleration but lock-down does. This suggests that if health policies aim at protecting the elderly population generally more at risk to suffer severe consequences from COVID-19, curfew measures may be most effective. However, looking at the departmental map of France, we find that curfews have not necessarily been imposed in départements where acceleration was the largest.

Note: Funding: This work was supported by French National Research Agency Grants ANR-17-EURE-0020.

Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

Keywords: COVID-19, Effects of Curfew and Lock-down, Acceleration Index, Real-time Analysis, France

JEL Classification: I18, H12

Suggested Citation

Baunez, Christelle and Degoulet, Mickael and Luchini, Stephane and Pintus, Patrick and Teschl, Miriam, An Early Assessment of Curfew and Second COVID-19 Lock-Down on Virus Propagation in France (November 12, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3728903 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3728903

Christelle Baunez

Institut de Neurosciences de la Timone (INT) ( email )

UMR7289 CNRS & AMU (Aix Marseille Université)
France

Mickael Degoulet

Aix-Marseille University ( email )

3 Avenue Robert Schuman
3 Avenue Robert Schuman,
Aix-en-Provence, 13628
France

Stephane Luchini

National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) - Research Group in Quantitative Saving (GREQAM), EHESS ( email )

Centre de la Vieille Charité
2, rue de la Charité
Marseille, 13002
France

Patrick Pintus (Contact Author)

Aix-Marseille University and CNRS ( email )

Ilot Bernard Dubois
5-9 Boulevard Maurice Bourdet
Marseille, 13001
France
0609397281 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/patrickpintus/

Miriam Teschl

Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) ( email )

54, boulevard Raspail
Paris, 75006
France

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