Estimating the Effects of Tobacco-21 on Youth Tobacco Use and Sales

52 Pages Posted: 12 Jan 2021 Last revised: 31 Dec 2021

See all articles by Rahi Abouk

Rahi Abouk

William Paterson University

Prabal K. De

City College of New York; CUNY Graduate Center

Michael Pesko

Georgia State University - Department of Economics

Date Written: December 28, 2021

Abstract

We examine the effect of Tobacco 21 laws (T21), which raise the minimum legal sale age of tobacco to 21. We estimate difference-in-differences models using the Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey data and Nielsen Retail Scanner data from 2012 to 2019. Our outcomes include cigarette and e-cigarette use and sales and potential mechanisms of T21 such as perceived risks of using cigarettes and e-cigarettes and retailer ID checking. We find that T21 sizably reduces 12th grade cigarette use by 35 percent and modestly reduces cigarette use for 8th and 10th graders. We also find some evidence that T21 reduces e-cigarette use across all grades. We find that T21 increases ID checking and perceived risks of both tobacco products. Finally, analyses of the 2012-2019 Nielsen Retail Scanner Data suggest that in counties with the highest quartile of the share of individuals under 21, T21 reduced cigarette sales by 12.3% and e-cigarette sales by 49.1%.

Keywords: Youth Smoking, Tobacco 21

JEL Classification: I12, I18

Suggested Citation

Abouk, Rahi and De, Prabal and Pesko, Michael, Estimating the Effects of Tobacco-21 on Youth Tobacco Use and Sales (December 28, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3737506 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3737506

Rahi Abouk (Contact Author)

William Paterson University ( email )

Prabal De

City College of New York ( email )

Convert Avenue at 138th Street
New York, NY 10031
United States

CUNY Graduate Center ( email )

365 Fifth Avenue, 5th Floor
New York, NY 10016
United States

HOME PAGE: http://https://prabal.commons.gc.cuny.edu/

Michael Pesko

Georgia State University - Department of Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 3992
Atlanta, GA 30302-3992
United States

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