Examining Early Effects of Tobacco 21 on Substance Use among Teenagers

Abstract

We examine the effect of Tobacco 21 laws, which raise the minimum legal sale age of tobacco to 21, on cigarette and e-cigarette use rates for middle school and high school students in the United States. We estimate difference-in-differences models using the Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey data from 2012 to 2018. Our results suggest that these laws reduce cigarette use among underage 12th graders by 28 percent. These effects were particularly pronounced for males and racial/ethnic minorities. We also find limited evidence of these laws affecting cigarette use for 8th and 10th graders. Finally, we find no evidence of these laws affecting e-cigarette use, alcohol use, or marijuana use.

Keywords: Youth Smoking, Tobacco 21

JEL Classification: I12, I18