Estimating the Effects of Tobacco-21 on Youth Tobacco Use and Sales

62 Pages Posted: 12 Jan 2021 Last revised: 10 Jan 2023

See all articles by Rahi Abouk

Rahi Abouk

William Paterson University

Prabal K. De

City College of New York; CUNY Graduate Center

Michael Pesko

Georgia State University - Department of Economics

Date Written: January 1, 2023

Abstract

We examine the effect of Tobacco 21 laws (T21), which raise the minimum legal sale age of tobacco to 21. We estimate difference-in-differences models using the Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey data and Nielsen Retail Scanner data from 2012 to 2019. Outcomes include cigarette and e-cigarette use and sales. To examine how T21 laws work, we also examine potential T21 mechanisms of perceived risks of using cigarettes and e-cigarettes and retailer ID checking. We find that T21 sizably reduces 12th graders’ cigarette use by 21.4 percent, modestly reduces cigarette use for 8th and 10th graders and reduces e-cigarette use across all grades. T21 also reduced cigarette sales by 12.4% and e-cigarette sales by 69.3% in counties with the highest quartile of the share of individuals under 21. In terms of mechanisms, we find that T21 increases ID checking and perceived risks of both tobacco products.

Keywords: Youth Smoking, Tobacco 21

JEL Classification: I12, I18

Suggested Citation

Abouk, Rahi and De, Prabal and Pesko, Michael, Estimating the Effects of Tobacco-21 on Youth Tobacco Use and Sales (January 1, 2023). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3737506 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3737506

Rahi Abouk (Contact Author)

William Paterson University ( email )

Prabal De

City College of New York ( email )

Convert Avenue at 138th Street
New York, NY 10031
United States

CUNY Graduate Center ( email )

365 Fifth Avenue, 5th Floor
New York, NY 10016
United States

HOME PAGE: http://https://prabal.commons.gc.cuny.edu/

Michael Pesko

Georgia State University - Department of Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 3992
Atlanta, GA 30302-3992
United States

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